Hezbollah Declares War On Israel...

[gaia.plateau]

Or is it just more smoke-blowing?

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/7B3...D0C49B61B88.htm

Here's the rub... Iran has vowed to protect Palestine... Russia, Syria, and several South American countries have loose allegiances with Iran... And as I'm sure you know, the United States is a strong ally of Israel. India has been on the fence, making weapons deals with both Russia and the US, but most recently pledging support to Vladamir Putin. Chinese-American relations have been shaky lately as well, ever since the US welcomed the Dalai Lama and effectively declared Chinese occupation of Tibet to be illegitimate.

It's just too bloody similar to 1914. The most powerful country in the world (Germany then, the US now) holding the chains to the dogs of war (Austria-Hungary then, Israel now), who is threatened by neighbouring nationalist movements (Serbia then, Palestine now), who are backed up by some other very big dogs (Russia, France, Britain then, Iran, Russia, India now).

Israel, the United States, Russia, India, and possibly Iran are nuclear superpowers, as is Pakistan just nextdoor but politically ambiguous.

The spark that served as an excuse for Austria-Hungary and Serbia to go to war was the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand, although war certainly would have broken out otherwise... and just this week Israel has been blamed for the death of senior commander and politician Imad Moghaniyah. In 1914 Germany allowed Austria-Hungary to attack Serbia, because it was unable to hold them back and because it served their interests. If shit does hit the fan, the world is fucked unless the US can hold back Israel (indefinitely?). Obviously the biggest difference between 1914 and today is that back then, war was still used as a political instrument, and in today's nuclear era it is nearly unthinkable.

This is exactly the kind of shit that International Relations scholars have been dreading for the last 15 years... but what do you think? Will this blow over quickly or is it time to start worrying?

Declaration here. Edited February 15, 2008 by gaia.plateau

[r1v3th3ad]

I think its time to tuck our heads inbetween our our legs and kiss our asses goodbye. The Hezbollah have generally lived upto their calls. Unless Israel makes a public statement of something like " hey, sorry for your loss, but we didn't do it", I think you may be right about the chain reaction. I'm not sure exactly who all will get involved. I hope that China, US, and Iran do not get involved, because then all nations backing them would too(not to mention China's man power).
BTW, don't forget North Korea in this scenario.

[AKammenzind]

Yeah, the situation isn't all that dissimilar to that just before the great war. There are some key differences though... nuclear weapons are very effective at deterring people from declaring war. Open war, especially a world war, doesn't seem terribly likely. Methinks that if anything we'll have something halfway between a world war, and the cold war.

Regardless, it's not a fun situation. One question though, in this little comparison to the first world war if the US = Germany, and Israel = Austria-Hungary (both of which I do more or less agree with)... who would you think is Turkey? I guess it could be the UK, or South Korea?

[Snoopy1966]

I really do not want to get into a big debate here, but here it goes.

Really now how long do you think you could be held in your house, with little or no food or water. Even when you are told you can go out, you still get killed by the Israel army. They destroy your homes, businesses, kill your family, rape them in front of you, stay there as long as they want and then kill everyone in the house. Palestine did not bring this on if you really know what is going on there. Israel has oppressed them big time. I do not accept suicide bombers as being part of Islam. But this is where it has gotten too. I do not say it is correct. If you keep a cat backed in the corner for so long, it is going to fight back. Put yourself in the Palestinians shoes and then come tell me about it. I put up a map here in another post showing how the Israelis took over the land by force. They talk about moving settlers and do move them. Where do you think they go? To another part that Israel has taken over.

[Bulldog_916]

This is why I smoke now, because I probably wont live long enough to feel the effects. Either way.

I think the Palestinians are right to fight the Israeli occupation.

Do I think this is WWIII? No, every time I think things will escalate that much, cooler heads prevail. Large powers wont get involved because it isnt in their best interest. War, while it is profitable for the winner, is devastating for the loser in the short term or the long term or both. Diplomacy is the tool that large nations use to avoid war. I dont think this situation will be any different.

[Johnny_D]

I really do not want to get into a big debate here, but here it goes.

Really now how long do you think you could be held in your house, with little or no food or water. Even when you are told you can go out, you still get killed by the Israel army. They destroy your homes, businesses, kill your family, rape them in front of you, stay there as long as they want and then kill everyone in the house. Palestine did not bring this on if you really know what is going on there. Israel has oppressed them big time. I do not accept suicide bombers as being part of Islam. But this is where it has gotten too. I do not say it is correct. If you keep a cat backed in the corner for so long, it is going to fight back. Put yourself in the Palestinians shoes and then come tell me about it. I put up a map here in another post showing how the Israelis took over the land by force. They talk about moving settlers and do move them. Where do you think they go? To another part that Israel has taken over.

I normally avoid such conversations. But that is utter propoganda... no that is just down-right lies.. and nothing else. I'm rather surprised at you snoopy.

Next you'll be telling it's all todo with the Elders of Zion right?

[Snoopy1966]

No propaganda here my friend. Just the cold hard truth that know one really knows about or does not want to admit.
I have some nice live footage of propaganda. Watch Arabic Al-Jazerra. You do not need to understand Arabic. Live coverage pretty much tells it like it is. Does anyone remember last year when the Israel Army killed a couple while they were at the beach? No, because you do not hear for this. Is it right to bulldoze Olive trees that have been around for hundreds of years to destroy a families business? How about the great one of the man and a little boy, and they shot the kid, while they have no weapons and trapped in a corner. How about the Israel Army smashing down a prison that all of a sudden the Brits and Americans cant "control" That is BS. Remember that? Probably not, never made mainstream news. I watched it live btw. How do you justify bombing the living hell out of Lebanon when Hezbollah was hundreds of miles away. How about killing all those innocent farmers in Lebanon too? A Christian country at that. Do you know that? Lebanon has one of the best governments to allow ALL people of faiths have to be on the cabinet and positions. Did you know that?

No lies my friend. Nothing but the truth. Seek and ye shall find.

So Zionism is OK by you?????

I hate Zionism just as much as the radical Islamic extremists, that is fair don't you think?

[oolatec]

This is why I smoke now, because I probably wont live long enough to feel the effects. Either way.

I think the Palestinians are right to fight the Israeli occupation.

Do I think this is WWIII? No, every time I think things will escalate that much, cooler heads prevail. Large powers wont get involved because it isnt in their best interest. War, while it is profitable for the winner, is devastating for the loser in the short term or the long term or both. Diplomacy is the tool that large nations use to avoid war. I dont think this situation will be any different.

What occupation? Israel pulled out of Gaza... and in turn, the Gazans invaded Egypt, and Israel suffers from almost daily rocket attacks from Gaza. If your neighbor kept throwing rocks through your windows, how long could you hold out before you went ballistic?

1967... remember what happened back then? All the surrounding Arab nations decided to get together to try to erase Israel, and that wasn't the last time. They lost, and unfortunately, Israel had no choice but to keep the land they won when war was dumped on them.

The whole situation sucks. The Palestinians are being used as tools... by the Arabs, by other Palestinians. The Arab nations don't want them, but they are a useful propaganda tool against Israel. That's about as far as the "love" for "Palestine" goes, unfortunately.

[oolatec]

No propaganda here my friend. Just the cold hard truth that know one really knows about or does not want to admit.
I have some nice live footage of propaganda. Watch Arabic Al-Jazerra. You do not need to understand Arabic. Live coverage pretty much tells it like it is. Does anyone remember last year when the Israel Army killed a couple while they were at the beach? No, because you do not hear for this. Is it right to bulldoze Olive trees that have been around for hundreds of years to destroy a families business? How about the great one of the man and a little boy, and they shot the kid, while they have no weapons and trapped in a corner. How about the Israel Army smashing down a prison that all of a sudden the Brits and Americans cant "control" That is BS. Remember that? Probably not, never made mainstream news. I watched it live btw. How do you justify bombing the living hell out of Lebanon when Hezbollah was hundreds of miles away. How about killing all those innocent farmers in Lebanon too? A Christian country at that. Do you know that? Lebanon has one of the best governments to allow ALL people of faiths have to be on the cabinet and positions. Did you know that?

No lies my friend. Nothing but the truth. Seek and ye shall find.

So Zionism is OK by you?????

I hate Zionism just as much as the radical Islamic extremists, that is fair don't you think?

Snoop... hate to tell you, but that beach incident was pure propaganda and a total setup. The timeframe and evidence that was found at the scene don't point to Israeli involvement.

http://www.tomgrossmedia.com/mideastdispat...ves/000743.html

The Palestinians are masters of propaganda. They are so good, they can even resurrect dead people.

http://www.metacafe.com/watch/277763/fake_funeral

[gaia.plateau]

I hate Zionism just as much as the radical Islamic extremists, that is fair don't you think?

There's nothing intrinsically detrimental about Zionism... It's basically just a form of secular Judaism. Zionists are the least fundamentalist of all Jewish divisions.

It's how Zionism is used and abused that is a problem.

[thecoalition]

hmm due to the awesome factor of the israeli army i think if hezbollah started something israel would just plow over anyone connected to their enemy with bulldozers...(hey they've done it before).

[SmokingDjinn]

Have not Israel and Hezbollah been fighting for a while now anyways? What difference does it make if they declare open war or not? Sure its a little more of a formal statement. This news has not even made front page material of most news agencies, you have to dig around to find it.

[jayson]

No propaganda here my friend. Just the cold hard truth that know one really knows about or does not want to admit.
I have some nice live footage of propaganda. Watch Arabic Al-Jazerra. You do not need to understand Arabic. Live coverage pretty much tells it like it is. Does anyone remember last year when the Israel Army killed a couple while they were at the beach? No, because you do not hear for this. Is it right to bulldoze Olive trees that have been around for hundreds of years to destroy a families business? How about the great one of the man and a little boy, and they shot the kid, while they have no weapons and trapped in a corner. How about the Israel Army smashing down a prison that all of a sudden the Brits and Americans cant "control" That is BS. Remember that? Probably not, never made mainstream news. I watched it live btw. How do you justify bombing the living hell out of Lebanon when Hezbollah was hundreds of miles away. How about killing all those innocent farmers in Lebanon too? A Christian country at that. Do you know that? Lebanon has one of the best governments to allow ALL people of faiths have to be on the cabinet and positions. Did you know that?

No lies my friend. Nothing but the truth. Seek and ye shall find.

So Zionism is OK by you?????

I hate Zionism just as much as the radical Islamic extremists, that is fair don't you think?

Forgive me if I don't immediately believe that Al Jazeera is a becon of fair reporting, just as I wouldn't believe that any news channel fairly reports things.

Fact of the matter is that the Palestianians know they cannot win a war of attrition with Israel, so instead they choose to dupe tools into fighting for them with propaganda.

[Snoopy1966]

What occupation? Israel pulled out of Gaza... and in turn, the Gazans invaded Egypt, and Israel suffers from almost daily rocket attacks from Gaza. If your neighbor kept throwing rocks through your windows, how long could you hold out before you went ballistic?

You guys are hopelessly brain washed,
Why do you think the Palestinians have finally fought back. For what I have posted above. Sheesh. 60 + years they put up with crap from Israel. They did not just decide to start suicide bombing for no reason. Because of the oppression. It is not just Gaza. They took over all of Palestinian. No the beach was not set up. They WANT you to think it is a set up.

Forgive me if I don't immediately believe that Al Jazeera is a becon of fair reporting, just as I wouldn't believe that any news channel fairly reports things.

Hmm. That takes out Fox News, Cnn and many others. AL-Jazerra is the best.

ooltec your first link Is Just what America want you to believe. The second could be anyone they are filming. That is complete crap.

[gaia.plateau]

Have not Israel and Hezbollah been fighting for a while now anyways? What difference does it make if they declare open war or not? Sure its a little more of a formal statement. This news has not even made front page material of most news agencies, you have to dig around to find it.

1. They've had an informal peace for a few years.
2. In those years there has been considerable arms buildup and intelligence development on both sides.
3. " " " Iran has informally guaranteed Lebanon's integrity, and formally guaranteed the integrity of Palestine.
4. " " " Iran has been targeted by the current US administration as the next region of geopolitical and economic conquest.
5. " " " Russia and Venezuela have made informal alliances with Iran.

(Those are the differences).

Forgive me if I don't immediately believe that Al Jazeera is a becon of fair reporting, just as I wouldn't believe that any news channel fairly reports things.

Hmm. That takes out Fox News, Cnn and many others. AL-Jazerra is the best.

Snoopy is absolutely correct... Al Jazeera is internationally held to be the most objective, accurate and concise news agency in the world- even BBC, which is usually considered the next best choice, holds this view.

Every political studies professor I've ever had uses Al Jazeera for international news. Edited February 16, 2008 by gaia.plateau

[Balthazar]

I strongly recommend reading the chapters concerning Israel-Palestine in "Hegemony or Survival". Unless one likes to label Comsky as a commie-rat (much like how a lot of people fancy the word "Pilgerize" knowing that the only response they are capable of is ridicule). Just sayin' Edited February 16, 2008 by Cinemarxism

[Snoopy1966]

Oh yeah I forgot. That was the best thing when Egypt let the people from Gaza into their country so they could finally get some food. Well they did blow up the wall so they could get in, but Egypt did not stop them. They helped them. Not invade Egypt!! OOOhhhh boy, ALL of them had to go back to Gaza.

[oolatec]

Oh yeah I forgot. That was the best thing when Egypt let the people from Gaza into their country so they could finally get some food. Well they did blow up the wall so they could get in, but Egypt did not stop them. They helped them. Not invade Egypt!! OOOhhhh boy, ALL of them had to go back to Gaza.

Helped them with human chains, dogs and water canons?

They have had food all along. And now what about the Bedouins living in Egypt along the Gaza border? Now they have nothing because the Palestinians, with their complete lack of money apparently, took everything from the shops. And correct me if I am wrong, but Hamas was hard at work breaking down the wall for months until they finally succeeded... Israel cut power to Gaza on Feb. 6... Now when exactly did they break down the wall?

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/worl...icle3238615.ece

Question: Why does Egypt have a wall separating them from Gaza?

http://www.sandmonkey.org/2008/01/26/gaza-lessons-and-facts

And why, if the Palestinians want their own state, should they have to rely on another state (of which they have sworn the destrution of: Re: Hamas charter which is still unchanged to this day) to support them? Edited February 16, 2008 by oolatec

[oolatec]

oops, dupe. Edited February 16, 2008 by oolatec

[gaia.plateau]

Question: Why does Egypt have a wall separating them from Gaza?

http://www.sandmonkey.org/2008/01/26/gaza-lessons-and-facts

you question the legitimacy and objectivity of a globally recognized journalistic institution, and then source the opinions of an "extremely cynical, snarky, pro-US, secular, libertarian, disgruntled sandmonkey" as fact?

Another for good measure.

[oolatec]

Question: Why does Egypt have a wall separating them from Gaza?

http://www.sandmonkey.org/2008/01/26/gaza-lessons-and-facts

you question the legitimacy and objectivity of a globally recognized journalistic institution, and then source the opinions of an "extremely cynical, snarky, pro-US, secular, libertarian, disgruntled sandmonkey" as fact?

Another for good measure.

Ok, how about Boston.com? They think you are stupid though...

http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editoria...lehold_on_gaza/

Since then, the siege has been tightened to an unprecedented level. Over 80 percent of the population of 1.5 million (compared to 63 percent in 2006) is dependent on international food assistance, which itself has been dramatically reduced.

***snip***

Since June, Israel has limited its exports to Gaza to nine basic materials. Out of 9,000 commodities (including foodstuffs) that were entering Gaza before the siege began two years ago, only 20 commodities have been permitted entry since. Although Gaza daily requires 680,000 tons of flour to feed its population, Israel had cut this to 90 tons per day by November 2007, a reduction of 99 percent. Not surprisingly, there has been a sharp increase in the prices of foodstuffs.

680,000 tons of flour for 1.5 million people? Uh, that's almost half a ton of flour per Gazan, per day.

What would you do with half a ton of flour per day?

And what a welcome from the locals!

http://africa.reuters.com/wire/news/usnL28733455.html

Armed Egyptian Bedouins opened fire in the air to warn away Palestinians, highlighting growing anger over food shortages and price rises triggered by the breaching of the border wall with Gaza, witnesses said. The confrontation in the town of al-Joura occurred as residents on the Egyptian side of the border said shops had run out of goods since hundreds of thousands of Palestinians poured into Egypt when Hamas blew up the wall last week.

That just screams "Welcome, my brothers!".

And if they are so poor, how were they able to "spend" $480m in less than 2 weeks?

http://news.filbalad.com/News.asp?NewsID=23350

I am sure someone here can translate that bit of info on that page.

$480m? That's a lot of food... clinics... schools... medicine... hospitals... that can be purchased/built... Insted, it's wasted bribing border guards, and on fancy motorcycles/weapons/satellite dishes etc. I guess they gotta prioritize!

[oolatec]

Imad Moghaniyah... "Senior Commander and politician".... hmmm... do you know what he's responsible for?

[AKammenzind]

When you look at it, both sides are pumping out propaganda... and neither seems terribly intent on finding a solution that's not completely unfair and/or half-assed.

Wouldn't it just be a lot happier for everyone if the US (if not the west in general) took a more neutral stance? Yes I realize that we are primarily responsible for the creation of the jewish state, and yes I agree that it has generally caused a lot more trouble than it was worth... but looking at it now, is it really our problem? All our involvement seems to do is waste tax money and give people reasons to fly planes at us.

If we didn't support one side or the other they would probably focus more on blowing each other up, rather than killing us. That would be nice eh? I'm no pacifist, it just seems a waste of time and money to stir the pot... and when that stirring makes people want to kill us it seems all the more daft.

BTW: Wasn't this thread supposed to be about the possible implications of this, rather than an exchange of propaganda concerning which side is in the right?

[oolatec]

When you look at it, both sides are pumping out propaganda... and neither seems terribly intent on finding a solution that's not completely unfair and/or half-assed.

Wouldn't it just be a lot happier for everyone if the US (if not the west in general) took a more neutral stance? Yes I realize that we are primarily responsible for the creation of the jewish state, and yes I agree that it has generally caused a lot more trouble than it was worth... but looking at it now, is it really our problem? All our involvement seems to do is waste tax money and give people reasons to fly planes at us.

If we didn't support one side or the other they would probably focus more on blowing each other up, rather than killing us. That would be nice eh? I'm no pacifist, it just seems a waste of time and money to stir the pot... and when that stirring makes people want to kill us it seems all the more daft.

BTW: Wasn't this thread supposed to be about the possible implications of this, rather than an exchange of propaganda concerning which side is in the right?

If you think about it, Germany was responsible for the creation of Israel. Not trying to invoke Godwin's Law or anything, but what was going on in Europe in the 1930's eventually led to the creation of Israel.

And I agree... both sides are hardly innocent in this mess. However, one side in particular was offered almost all of what they wanted, and a certain now-deceased "leader" turned down the offer, flat out. Oslo was as close as anyone will ever get in achieving peace there, I'm afraid... short of total annihilation of one side or the other. And nobody sane wants to see that. (which may be the problem...)

I say give the Palestinians a state... that way the "rogue elements!" excuse won't hold any water anymore... plus they would have the perfect chance to prove to the world that they can be a prosperous, civilized, independent people.

[Snoopy1966]

I just want to add I also do not like to join these kind of debates. There is no right side or wrong side here. As someone posted, everyone is at fault here. There is a lot wrong in our World now and it is because everyone is away from God. No hard feelings here, I hope I did not offend anyone. I know what I see live on the news and what is out there. I read many things about the World and not just from one resource. Just a question though to throw out there. Does anyone know who controls the major part of the Media? News, TV, Newspapers etc...? How about where you phone bill is generated if you live in the States? I have a clip from Fox news about it, and I was shocked to see they even played it.

Also, could this be a start to WWIII if there is a war on Iran? Could be.